[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022002
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN BUB MCK 40 E AKO 60 SW RAP 40 NE SHR
65 WSW MLS SDY 60 NNE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40
N HOU 45 S LFK 40 WNW POE 45 N POE 30 ENE SHV MLU 20 ENE LUL 15 E
BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 45 E ABQ 45
N ALS 50 SE EVW 25 NE MLD 35 ENE S80 40 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX
30 S LSE LNK GAG CDS 70 NNW ABI 30 W SEP TPL 55 SW LFK 15 ENE LFK 35
S TXK GWO MSL 45 SW LOZ 15 NE 5I3 10 E SHD 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 30 E
PSX 30 N VCT 20 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION
WAS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN ND...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AREA REMAINS CAPPED. FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...AS NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. THESE BOUNDARIES AND THE
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN MT/WY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCI FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...THOUGH
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS ARE RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND TROPOSPHERIC WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE
EVENING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH STORMS. THE WEAK
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH BASES SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AS STORMS SPREAD EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
TWO SEVERE MCS/S...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.
EVOLVING COLD POOL AND MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
PROPEL AN MCS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MN LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
EXTREME NWRN WI BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

...SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD
THROUGH LA AT MID AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS...POSSIBLY UNTIL MID EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY...LOCATED
BETWEEN HOU AND LCH...MAY AID STORMS ON THE SRN END OF LINE TO
PROPAGATE SEWD. DESPITE THE WEAKER COLD POOL PUSH INTO THIS
AREA...WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO FAR SERN TX AND SWRN
LA.

...ERN AL NEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ONCE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH
THIS MORNINGS 12Z...AND AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS  SHOWED DEEP
MOIST PROFILES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED. HOWEVER...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
WATER LOADING FOR BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

..IMY.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.