[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021625
SWODY1
SPC AC 021623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW 25 SE SPW 35 W YKN 15 SW MCK 40 E AKO 15
WSW RAP 40 NE SHR 65 WSW MLS 15 E SDY 65 NNE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
GLS 35 W HOU 10 SSW CLL 50 E ACT 15 SSE TYR 25 SSW SHV 25 NW HEZ 10
WNW MCB 10 WNW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 10 W SAF
50 E DRO 30 WSW PUC 30 S SLC 35 S MLD 10 NNW PIH 40 NNE 4OM
...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 30 NW CID 35 N JLN 30 NE MKO 25 W HOT 40 NE
PBF 20 SSW MKL 45 ESE BWG 15 ESE LEX 30 NNW HTS 15 S PKB 10 N EKN 45
NNE CHO 30 ESE DOV ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 50 ENE COT 65 W COT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS AND
PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX AND LA...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL REMAIN PROMINENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN CAP CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY. MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR INITIATION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z SHOULD BE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS/SERN MT NEARER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LEE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AND NEAR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT
EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/WRN NEB.  LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG INSTABILITY / MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG / OVER
CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS TODAY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE 60S. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE UNDER
40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR NEAR WRN EXTENT OF RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NEAR/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY IN THE DAKOTAS. 
OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON
WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OR CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SYSTEM NEARS AND STRONG SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPS...WITH AN INCREASED RISK
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER E-CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING...ALONG WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING
ESEWD TOWARDS SERN LA/SRN MS.  STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST...WNWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION.  GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...THIS MAY SUSTAIN SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO A MCS AND TRACKS SEWD THROUGH THE DAY.  WRN
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH MORE SWD INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY
OVER SERN TX.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WW/S MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES ALONG A COMMON
COLD POOL.

...PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S.  IN ADDITION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL
SUPPORT STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION...AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN SMALL WITH DELTA-THETAE VALUES
AOB 25C THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE
OF 20 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND A NEAR-SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.