[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021253
SWODY1
SPC AC 021252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 20 SSE VTN 20
ENE RAP 20 NW 4BQ 15 SSE GDV 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT 35 ESE CWA
30 E ALO 20 ESE P35 10 WSW JLN 30 NW FSM 15 NNE HOT 25 ESE JBR 15
ESE LOZ 30 NNW EKN 20 SE DOV ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 25 SSE DRT
...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 SE GDP 45 SE ALS 40 SSE GUC 30 W GJT 35 NE
DPG 60 S BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES THIS
PERIOD...N OF ELONGATED RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE BAJA
CST TO THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN
THE ZONAL JET...NOW ENTERING NRN ID...MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
CONTINUES E INTO WRN ND BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR
48...UPR LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SHEAR AND/OR
ARE NOT NOTEWORTHY.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE ATTM...BUT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IT SHOULD REACH A NW
MN/ERN SD/NW NEB LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TRUE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADA...ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT OF SORTS LIKELY
WILL BECOME APPARENT OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
THE UPR MS VLY ENHANCES THERMAL GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING
GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH.

...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ID IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD.  WEAKLY DIFFLUENT...
40-50 KT W TO WNWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY FIRST DEVELOP ALONG
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN DAKOTAS AND PERHAPS SRN MT. 
RELATIVELY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP STORMS
HIGH-BASED AND PROMOTE CONSOLIDATION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
LINE.  POTENTIAL WILL...HOWEVER...ALSO EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO
FORM A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS...INVOF DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT AND/OR NEAR WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS.  LOCALLY ENHANCED SRH IN THESE AREAS COULD YIELD A TORNADO
OR TWO IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ID IMPULSE AMPLIFIES/CONTINUES EWD.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO
ONE OR TWO LARGE MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR 
HAIL AND WIND INTO MUCH OF MN AND PERHAPS NW IA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

...SERN U.S...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST INVOF LEE TROUGH AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH AFFECTED THE NERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. WEAKLY
CAPPED/STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MULTICELL AND/OR PULSE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK DEEP
SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...BUT BOUNDARY/CELL
INTERACTIONS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A FEW WET 
MICROBURSTS.  CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER MS/AL...AND POSSIBLY INTERIOR PARTS OF SC.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING MCSS SHOULD CONTINUE SSE ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX...
WHERE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL POCKETS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
 CINH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EXTENTION OF UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN
FORMIDABLE...AND SHEAR/CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
THEY WERE FRIDAY.  NEVERTHELESS...25+ KT NNW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SSE MOTION OF EXISTING COMPOSITE COLD POOL NOW COVERING MUCH
OF NRN AND WRN TX.  STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COULD
BRIEFLY POSE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

FARTHER NW...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. 
OTHER STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO ERN CO FROM THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST
/20-25 KT/ WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE MAY SUPPORT
A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LARGE CINH...RISK APPEARS
TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.