[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020449
SWODY1
SPC AC 020448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 45 SE PHP 35
ENE RAP 15 ENE REJ 15 WNW DIK 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 15 N VCT 40
WNW NIR 30 N COT 50 WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 SW
MRF 10 SE GDP 25 NE 4CR 45 SE ALS 40 N ALS 50 NW GJT 35 NE DPG 60 S
BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA
DBQ 25 SW IRK 35 NE JLN 25 WSW HRO 55 ENE LIT 40 SE BNA 25 SE JKL 25
E MGW 15 SE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN
U.S...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENCOMPASS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE NRN PLAINS...WILL CONTAIN AT LEAST ONE STRONGER LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WHICH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MT TO THE
UPR MS VLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
LWR MS VLY...SOUTH...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST. WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND LEE
TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE
NCNTRL GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO WITH
GENERALLY WEAK WLY FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM CA...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AXIS OF VERY STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY  INITIATE
FIRST IN RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SCNTRL MT. EVENTUALLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR LEE TROUGH/LOW
OVER WCNTRL DAKOTAS.

SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20KT WILL BE TOPPED BY INCREASING WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT TO PROVIDE STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST IN THE WAKE OF EARLY
MORNING MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN. THIS
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR LEE
LOW/TROUGH...MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE
OF TORNADIC STORMS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING
ALSO SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL SD/ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CELL MERGERS...AND
INCREASE IN MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND CONTINUING EAST
INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA AFTER 03/00Z.

...SOUTHEAST...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD
OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL FUEL INCREASING MULTICELL AND PULSE CONVECTION BY
AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS OF 20KT OR LESS WITHIN SLACK MID LEVEL
TROUGH...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
HOWEVER...RANDOM BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCURRING WITHIN
INCREASINGLY HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP SUBCLOUD LAPSE
RATES COULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IF A MORE FOCUSED
AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATER OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND A SLIGHT
RISK...MIGHT BE INTRODUCED OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY DRIFTING SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK WHERE
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE
WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CAP IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A DEEP CONVECTIVE COLD POOL TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO INCREASING
DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL TX DURING THE DAY AS SUGGESTED BY
LATEST NAM. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO GREAT TO
INCLUDE THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CAP IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME BY INTENSE HEATING FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO ERN CO AND
WRN KS. NW FLOW REGIME AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THESE AREAS GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE
AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.