[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020059
SWODY1
SPC AC 020057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
DDC 35 SSE DDC 30 NNE GAG 45 ESE GAG 40 E CSM 10 NNE FSI 35 WSW SPS
60 NNE ABI 45 NE ABI 10 SW SEP 40 W ACT 35 W TPL 50 SE BWD 30 SW BWD
15 NE SJT 30 NE FST 25 W INK 20 WSW HOB 40 SSE CVS TCC 30 NNW CAO
LHX 40 E LIC 40 SSW IML 40 SSW MHN 30 NW MHN 10 NW VTN 35 NNE ANW 35
W OFK 30 ESE HSI 45 W CNK 45 ENE DDC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
RRT 40 WNW FAR 35 NNE MBG 25 SE REJ 30 SE 4BQ 65 SSE GDV 25 SE SDY
60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 50 SSW CLL
60 ENE JCT 35 SSW SJT 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 35 SSW 4CR 45
ESE ABQ 25 ESE SAF 45 NE 4SL 15 SSE DRO 25 NNW DRO 20 S MTJ 30 E GJT
45 SSE VEL 25 WSW VEL 50 NNW VEL 40 ESE RKS 35 ESE RWL 25 NNE LAR 40
SSE DGW 45 NE DGW 30 SSW 81V 40 SSE SHR 25 SSW COD 15 ENE IDA 45 ESE
SUN 30 N SUN 30 NW DLN GTF 15 SSW HVR 40 NE HVR ...CONT... 40 E INL
25 NW AXN 15 ENE FSD 10 NW OMA 25 NNW TOP 30 SW TOP 30 S EMP 40 NNW
BVO 20 S BVO 10 E MKO FSM 45 N LIT 10 NE JBR 25 SSW CGI 40 ENE PAH
35 W JKL 20 SE YNG 15 NE ROC ...CONT... 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW PWM 20 NE
BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM INITIATION FROM THE TX PNHDL NWD TO CNTRL NEB. TO THE
WEST OF THIS ZONE...SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SURGES/OUTFLOWS HAVE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/NM...AS WELL
AS WEST TX. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH 35-40KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ABSENT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN
SUSTAINING TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT.

CELL MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EVOLVING
OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PERSISTING NEAR THESE COMPLEXES.
IN THE MEANTIME....TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COULD ACCOMPANY DISCRETE CELLS TRACKING NEAR
THE FRONT FROM NEB TO THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AS WELL AS NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SITUATED SE-NW ACROSS WEST TX.

...NRN PLAINS...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING THROUGH A BROAD UPR
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. WARM AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF ADVANCING LEE TROUGH WAS FUELING
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO ERN ND BEFORE DAYBREAK.

...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
EXTENSIVE LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG OUTFLOW/THERMAL
TROUGH MERGER FROM ERN NC TO SRN GA/AL THIS EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THIS SLOW MOVING LINE WAS VERY UNSTABLE. WHILE DIURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST
OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO SUBSIDE.

...NORTHEAST...
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING COULD STILL
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS FROM ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS
OVER PARTS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.