[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012010
SWODY1
SPC AC 012009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
SJT 50 N HOB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40
NE MCK 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW PNC 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE
SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40
NNE ART ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN 30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW
WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW
PWM 20 NE BID ...CONT... 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40
SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 15 NE PAH 40 NNW LEX 25 SE CAK 35 NNE BUF
...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS 55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07
...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW
EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...PA AND VT
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
MT....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
SERN ONTARIO AND NERN OH SWWD ACROSS SERN MO...THEN WWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK.  A WARM FRONT THEN CONTINUES NWWD INTO E CENTRAL CO. 
ALSO...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES DRAPE FROM ERN TN INTO CENTRAL
MS...NRN LA...NERN AND N CENTAL TX INTO SWRN OK.  LATEST RUC MODEL
SHOWS THAT A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN QUEBEC
AND STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU.

...ERN NY AND NERN PA INTO VT...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED PVA WILL ADVANCE COLD FRONT ALONG
INTO MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  MLCAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1500 TO 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN UPSTATE NY
WHERE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY.  18Z RAOB FROM
ALY SHOWS MARGINAL LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POSSIBLY EFFECTED BY
NEARBY CONVECTION...WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM.  THUS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL CAN OCCUR THRU THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EWD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

MODELS CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX. 
REMAN TS OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND OLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF MCS DEVELOPING FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN CO AHEAD OF
NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD EXTENDING
FROM NWRN MO INTO NWRN TX BY 02/12Z.  TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS
ARE 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DRIVEN SUBSIDENCE TO ENHANCE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EARLY TONIGHT.  RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
GIVE A SUBTLE HINT OF THIS WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM BEHIND THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT...

INCREASING BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLATEAU AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER INTO SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS PLACES AREA IN DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
EXIT REGION OF 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS S CENTRAL MT AND WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.