[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011625
SWODY1
SPC AC 011624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
SJT 40 SSW LBB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40
NE MCK 40 SSW HLC 20 W END 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE
SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40
NNE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP
10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW
BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS
55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN
30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15
WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 25 ESE MDH 40 SE
BMG 15 ESE DAY 20 W CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT...

...NORTHEAST U.S./LEE OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NC-VA PIEDMONT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE /EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO CENTRAL KY AT
15Z/ WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY.
 IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED
ACROSS ERN NY SSWWD INTO THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM IAD
AND ALB INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED.  HOWEVER...PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EVIDENT AT BUF THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL STILL BOOST SBCAPES AOA 200O J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER NORTH
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST
FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  EXPECT SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING... ESPECIALLY INTO UPSTATE NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS/STABLE ONSHORE FLOW PREVALENT ATTM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
NEW ENGLAND.  FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SWD INTO VA/NC...DESPITE THE WEAKER WLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ATTAIN MULTICELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ALLOW INFLUX OF 50/LOWER 60F DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITHIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND
LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING.  AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SUITABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO BOWING MCS/S
OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE
SHAPING UP FROM E-CENTRAL/SERN CO SEWD ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND
WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THERE. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.

...ERN MT INTO WRN ND...
LEE TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME WELL
DEFINED FROM NWRN ND/NERN MT SSWWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E.
SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 45-55F/ DESPITE DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S.  THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES WILL NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE / 750-1200 J/KG /... EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...ERN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF SRN KS/OK/AR THIS
MORNING...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST
AND WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THE MID
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD
AWAY FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. 
THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL MAY
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1573. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.  ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT
SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN ISOLATED/BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE
THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE
TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH
BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.