[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY
60 SSW TYR 35 SSW BWD 20 N BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 25 NE
SNY 30 NNE CDR PHP 10 N BUB 35 E HSI 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE P28 10 NW END
30 SW TUL 35 ENE PBF 40 N TUP 40 WSW HOP 45 SSW SDF 15 NNE TYS 30 E
HSS 25 S CRW 45 SSE LBE 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 20 N GDP 40
N ALM 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW
LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15
ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 SSE BMG DAY 15 WNW CLE ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS
35 SE AUS 30 WNW JCT 60 NE P07 30 SSE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY/NEW ENG AND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE TN VLY TO THE SRN PLNS AND CNTRL
HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST TO TX WHILE THE
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUES FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND NEW ENG.  UPPER LOW NOW OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD MOVE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY AS
UPSTREAM CLOSED SYSTEM WEAKENS SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING SRN BC/WA. 
FARTHER S...SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW
ENTERING WRN WY/UT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WITHDRAW N INTO CANADA.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL...HOWEVER... 
RECEIVE A BOOST EWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES E ACROSS MI.  IN THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS
VLY...MAIN SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL UPLIFT LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W TN/NW MS INTO AR/SRN MO AND
THE TX PANHANDLE REGION.

...SRN PLNS/CNTRL HI PLNS...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF WRN NEB...WRN KS...OK AND NRN/WRN TX THIS PERIOD.  EXPECT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH DIURNAL HEATING...AND
BY APPROACH OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE.  SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN OK INTO NW
TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORMIDABLE CAP WILL PROBABLY KEEP SUCH
ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM.

A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL FIND STORMS FORMING IN UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN CO...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN NEB.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MERGE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS...WITH A
PREDOMINANT MOTION TOWARD THE SE.  AMPLE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR /40+ KT/ 
AND INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J PER KG...BOTH SURFACE- BASED
AND ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN EXPECTED MULTIPLE
AREAS OF STORM INITIATION...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT AND COMPLEX COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEVATED AND
SURFACE-BASED CAPE...EXPECT THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND.  LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES.  A
SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY..ESPECIALLY IN TX.

...NY/NEW ENG INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODEST INSTABILITY /ML CAPE OF 1000- 1500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP
WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF NY/PA COLD FRONT...AND ALONG LEE
TROUGH OVER THE MD/VA/NC PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY.  CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION/INFLOW FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENG.  COUPLED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...RANGING FROM AROUND
 25 KTS IN MD/VA TO NEAR 40 KTS IN NRN NY...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND...MAINLY IN NY...A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO WSWLY FLOW COULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL.  A
LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE UPR HUDSON VLY...WHERE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MORE SLY
COMPONENT.  FARTHER S...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE IN
NATURE...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS
WITH BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...TN VLY TO S ATLANTIC CST...
REMNANT OF OVERNIGHT KS/MO/AR MCS WILL CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF
TN/MS/AL LATER TODAY...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR.  MORNING
RAOB/SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A POCKET OF ENHANCED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF KY/MIDDLE TN/MS AND AL. 
THIS MARKS AN APPARENT REGION THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN RECENT DAYS. RESULTANT STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS
AND POSSIBLY HAIL...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR.  OTHER STRONGER
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE A BAND
OF SOMEWHAT FASTER MID LVL WLY FLOW WILL EXIST.

...NRN HI PLNS...
DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KTS OVER ERN/SRN MT AND WRN
ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NRN PART OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE GRAZES
REGION.  WHILE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN N OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION.  IF CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS...SETUP COULD YIELD SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS AND A
THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  ATTM IT APPEARS
THAT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE
TO SLIGHT RISK.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.