[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010527
SWODY1
SPC AC 010525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY
50 SSW TYR 25 NNW BWD 65 NE BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 55
ENE SNY 60 NNW MHN 40 NE VTN 30 ESE OLU 25 SW BIE 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE
P28 10 NW END 35 SW TUL 20 SSW LIT 45 NE UOX 25 ESE BNA 25 WSW JKL
45 WNW EKN 30 NW AOO 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 35 E AUS 15
SSE SJT 60 NNE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 80 SSW GDP 15 SSW CNM 45 SW
4CR 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW
LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15
ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 S BMG 10 WNW DAY 15 WNW CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST....LWR MS VLY...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TOWARD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME FROM THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TO THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...TO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS...AND THEN WNWWD TO THE SRN
PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY...ATOP THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL ZONE.
RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NRN
MEXICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS S FL.

...NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN BANDS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM UPSTATE NY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NRN AREAS...FROM NRN PA NWD ACROSS WRN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST.

FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAKER FROM DELMARVA AREA
SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WITHIN
LEE-TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHEN DEEP CONVECTION SPREADS EAST OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN NC
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LIFT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW GENERATING
ADDITIONAL STORMS IN MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...SRN PLAINS/MS VLY NWWD TO HIGH PLAINS...
AN MCS OR TWO MAY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR EARLY TODAY.
CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS RESULTING FROM THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE RED RIVER VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY. LACK OF STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR
WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL AS CONVECTION
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...FROM
NWRN TX TO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MOIST
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH MODEST AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER
LVL FLOW. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THE WNWLY MID LVL
FLOW WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE
TSTM INITIATION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AND SPREAD
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

...ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS...
LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE LIMITED BUT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK IMPULSE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION WITHIN
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE TROUGH. HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THESE
STORMS COULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.