[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010110
SWODY1
SPC AC 010108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ERI 35 NNE PKB 25 WSW HTS 20 SW BNA 30 SW DYR 55 NNW LIT 10 SSE MKO
30 ENE OKC 45 E CSM 25 W CSM 35 NE AMA 25 S DHT 15 W CAO 15 E TAD 20
N TAD 10 ESE COS 25 W LIC 30 ENE LIC 50 E LIC 45 NNE LAA 55 W GCK 25
WSW GCK 25 SSE GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNW P28 30 NNW HUT 15 S MHK 25 WNW
TOP FLV 45 SSW IRK 40 NE COU 10 NNE STL 10 W MTO 30 NW MIE 25 SW JXN
15 E LAN 20 NNE FNT 65 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE 7R4 10 WSW LFT
30 S HEZ 25 WSW LUL 40 NW CEW 20 W MAI 15 ESE MGR 15 S AYS 25 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CRE 20 SE CAE 15
N MCN 15 SSE TCL 35 N MEI 35 S GLH 25 ENE TXK 10 NE ADM 35 WNW SPS
35 S CDS 50 SSE LBB 35 SW FST 65 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 WSW
GDP 45 NNW GDP 10 NNW ROW 50 WSW CVS 50 SW TCC 40 NW TCC 25 SSE RTN
10 WNW RTN 25 NW ALS 30 E GUC 30 WNW 4FC 40 SW LAR 40 SSE DGW 25 N
BFF 50 WSW MHN 10 E IML 40 SW MCK 20 SSE HLC 20 ENE CNK 25 SW DSM 25
W CID 20 SW LNR 45 WSW OSH 25 NNW GRB 20 E IMT 15 NE MQT ...CONT...
45 NNW BML 25 SSE EEN POU 30 WNW ILG 25 N RIC 55 SSW RIC 30 ENE RWI
10 WNW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GGW 50 NE LWT
10 S LWT 40 NNW COD 25 NNE JAC 30 NW IDA 35 N SUN 55 WSW 27U 25 SE
S80 20 E LWS 35 WNW PUW 20 S 4OM 55 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...MIDWEST/OH VLY...
A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ALONG PREFRONTAL
WIND SHIFT...AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS...FROM SRN IL NEWD
ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO WRN OH AND EXTREME SERN MI. DESPITE A LATE
START DUE TO DELAYED AIR MASS RECOVERY AFTER EARLIER MCS...NOW
DECAYING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF
GREAT LAKES UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MID/UPR OH RIVER VLY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30KT WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. LINES AND STORM CLUSTERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HAIL AND HIGH WIND EVENTS INTO LATE
EVENING.

...KS/MO INTO OK/AR...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL/SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MESOSCALE COLD POOL...AND AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SITUATED FROM SRN IA...TO THE OK/TX
PNHDLS. LARGE SCALE UPR SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE KS/MO AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
MID/UPR LEVEL WIND MAX AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MCS POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT AND COLD POOL WILL ALSO LEND SUPPORT FOR INTENSE STORMS WITHIN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM DISCRETE CELLS/UPDRAFTS TRACKING ALONG OR ACROSS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SEE MCD
NUMBER 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT
ERN KS MCS WILL TRACK INTO WRN/SWRN MO AND THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ACROSS SCNTRL
MO...SHOULD SPREAD GENERALLY EWD TO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN/KY LATE TONIGHT OR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN KS
INTO NRN OK LATER TONIGHT. CAP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUITE STRONG AND THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND
SWD/SWWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.

...ERN CO/NM INTO TX/OK PNHDLS...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN CO PROMPTED ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER AND THIS CONVECTION WAS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
ERN PLAINS. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER ERN NM AND WAS NOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL
AND SOUTH PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE NRN TX PNHDL NWWD
INTO SERN CO APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM
BUT LESS SO BY LATEST RUC. WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY...RUC SCENARIO OF LIMITED NEW
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE PROBABLE. HOWEVER...ONGOING ACTIVITY
APPEARS INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

..CARBIN.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.