[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VCT 35 WNW ALI
15 S LRD ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 40 ESE JCT 30 SSW TPL 55 N HOU 20 SSE
BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 15 E GSB
25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PGA 50 SE CNY
35 E ASE 20 NW PUB 15 NNE CAO 65 E AMA 35 SW CDS 30 NNW HOB 15 NNW
SVC 45 E PHX 20 N PRC 20 WNW PGA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AND
SWRN CANADA TODAY...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM ELONGATION OF LARGE
SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM NRN BAJA TO THE GREAT LAKES.  A
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS ENEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WITH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN STATES. 
MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EACH SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER
THIS EVENING.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN NC AND ALONG A COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SWD TO FAR ERN SC. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TROUGH
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA PER 30 KT SLY LLJ OVER ERN NC ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ENDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WEST TX...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD TO
THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH SHEARS EWD.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WEAK
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS
WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN AND SERN TX...
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM DEEP S TX EWD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD NOT MOVE TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER
THIS REGION BENEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGE.  NELY SURFACE FLOW NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
MEANWHILE...MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INITIALLY ORIENTED OVER WRN TX
WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTION ATOP THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN TX.  THIS CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHTNING STRIKES.  A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AS SUGGESTED
BY ETA/ETAKF AND SREF MODELS.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.