[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301247
SWODY1
SPC AC 301245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SSW ALI
70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 60 ENE JCT 35 NE ACT 25 S GGG 20
SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ILM 25 NNW EWN
25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PGA 30 ENE 4BL
45 WNW ALS 25 WNW TAD 15 SSW CAO 65 E AMA 40 SW CDS 40 SSE CVS 30
ESE ONM 15 SSE SOW 25 WNW INW 35 E PGA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NM AREA TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SW IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS - ONE DIGGING SLOWLY SSWWD OVER NRN BAJA AND
ANOTHER EJECTING EWD FROM NM TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE NM
TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING EWD INTO A
WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME N/NW OF THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.  OTHER DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS NM.

...S CENTRAL AND SE TX AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A WAA REGIME IS DEVELOPING OVER S/SE TX THIS MORNING TO THE N OF A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF.  THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
NWD CLOSER TO THE TX COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT
ACROSS DEEP S TX.  GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE TX.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED S OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL INVERSION
IN THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING...AND LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR ASCENT. 

...ERN NC AREA THIS MORNING...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INVOF ERN NC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS ERN NC...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY.

..THOMPSON.. 01/30/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.