[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300052
SWODY1
SPC AC 300050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN 30 NE MAI 45
E MCN 20 SSW CAE 25 SW FAY 10 W HSE ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ALM 35 SE SAD
30 W GBN 15 NNE BLH 30 W EED 55 SW P38 50 NW MLF 40 WNW PUC 35 N GJT
45 ESE ASE PUB 20 SSE CAO 50 WSW AMA 50 WSW LBB HOB 45 ESE ALM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN
AZ WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW FROM UT
AND INTO AZ/NM.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LOW/INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO
NM.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PER 90+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST S
OF U.S. BORDER...IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER
SRN AZ INTO NM.  HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE
TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  NELY
SURFACE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NWRN FL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE HAS MAINTAINED A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITING AN
E-W SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF FROM MOVING INLAND.  EARLY
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...
AND THEN NEWD ALONG THE GA TO NC COASTS.  HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY...JUST OFF THE SC COAST BY 06Z.  THIS LOW SHOULD
THEN TRACK NEWD TO ALONG THE NC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.  INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WITHIN AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.