[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290546
SWODY1
SPC AC 290544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BVE MEI 10 S
HSV RMG AGS GSB 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SGU BCE 4HV CNY 15 E
DRO TAD DHT CVS 10 ESE 4CR ONM SAD 15 ESE GBN 15 NNW BLH 10 NNW EED
SGU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ABI BWD TPL
AUS SAT 35 WNW HDO 60 ENE P07 40 S MAF 15 E MAF 30 SSW ABI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

INTERACTING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES ARE MAINTAINING STRONG HIGH-LEVEL JET...ROUGHLY AROUND 30
N LATITUDE.  THIS FEATURE HAS NOSED AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES
BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

WHILE WAVES IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM ARE SUBTLE...WITHIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE READILY
EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SYSTEM
WILL TRAVERSE THE MID SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE
PROGRESSING INTO AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. 
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...WHERE A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL EVOLVE TODAY...BEFORE SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...CORE OF HIGH LEVEL JET WILL
INTENSIFY ATOP BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
DAMMING OF COLD AIR IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN EARLY TODAY... BUT MORE
RAPID MODIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

DESPITE WEDGE OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...MOISTENING OF
ENVIRONMENT ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ONGOING AND WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON...AS FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
INLAND OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC JET
DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES.  MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FROM
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...TEXAS...
A GRADUAL MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE...BUT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER
RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MORE LIKELY
BEYOND...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS  PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TOPPING UPPER RIDGE.

..KERR.. 01/29/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.