[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290051
SWODY1
SPC AC 290048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MRY 15 SSE SCK
50 ENE MER 55 ESE FAT 25 ESE BFL 30 N RAL 35 W TRM CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 35 SE ESF 25
N HEZ 40 NNW JAN 50 SE GWO SEM 65 SSW SEM 25 ESE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES.  THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO
CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME.  MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ON TAIL END OF LATTER SYSTEM
MAY BE SUPPORTING ONGOING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEADING/NORTHERN EDGE OF
MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...AND PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...AWAY FROM SHORE...INTO THE  NORTHEASTERN/EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

OTHERWISE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
LATER THIS EVENING...WEAK WARMING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES.  THUS...A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

...CALIFORNIA...
MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. 
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE COOLING PROGRESSES...AND BAND OF
MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.

..KERR.. 01/29/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.