[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
/MULI/S OF -1 TO -2 C AND MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z NKX OBSERVATION INDICATE
THAT ENVIRONMENT BELOW 500-600 MB REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH 
WHEN COUPLED WITH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO THE N OVER THE SIERRAS NW OF TVL WHERE IT
APPEARS THAT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED WEAKLY BUOYANT PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS...IT
APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...SRN MO INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL...
00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM/ AND SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO. DESPITE WEAKENING IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEEP
OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
WILL EXIST E/NE OF UPPER SYSTEM TRACK WHERE THESE LAPSE RATES ARE
FAVORABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. SHOULD
ANY TSTMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...PRECLUDING
ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..MEAD.. 01/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.