[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251943
SWODY1
SPC AC 251941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO FEATURE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD INTO ATLANTIC...AND
RIDGE FROM NRN MEX ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES.  WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- PRESENTLY EXITING RIDGE AS IT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS OK --
IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING.  MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PERTURBATION
INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- ABOUT 350-400 NM W OF BAJA
SPUR -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NRN BAJA AND SRN CA
TONIGHT...AMIDST PREVAILING SWLY FLOW.

AT SFC...CYCLONE INVOF LS -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN ONT/NERN MN -- WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD MID
ATLANTIC REGION AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

...SRN/CENTRAL CA COAST AND CENTRAL VALLEY...
MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WEAKLY AS SRN STREAM
TROUGH APCHS SRN CA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BANDS MOVING INLAND.  STILL...EXPECT
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC...LIMITING BOTH DEPTH
AND AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY.  NAM MODEL SBCAPES IN FAT-SAC AXIS ARE
PREDICATED ON SFC TEMPS MID/UPPER 60S F...UNLIKELY OVER MUCH OF
VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS AND MODIFIED NAM/RUC
SOUNDINGS.  FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY/LIMIT SFC
HEATING NEAR AXIS OF SAC VALLEY AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THOUGH
AREAS CURRENTLY CLEARED OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL/SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
CAN HEAT INTO LOW 60S F.  WHILE SMALL POCKETS OF SBCAPE AND VERY
ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR GEN TSTM RISK.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST...
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION AND ADVECT
MOISTURE NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...IN RESPONSE
TO PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER OK.  GULF AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MODIFY FROM VERY LOW-THETAE ORIGINS AS CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN SPEED OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND GREAT DEGREE OF MARINE
ADJUSTMENT REMAINING BEFORE AIR MASS YIELDS DEEP ENOUGH CAPE PROFILE
TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GEN TSTM THREAT
APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM FOR AN OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.