[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240526
SWODY1
SPC AC 240524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST...AND AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION /CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CA OR NWRN SONORA MEXICO/
LIFTS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE E...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN
WAKE OF DEEP...CLOSED LOW SHIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST.

...WRN NM...
APPROACH OF COLD POOL /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB/
ASSOCIATED WITH MOBILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE LAPSE RATES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OWING TO THE VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THUS...A GENERAL TSTM AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED ATTM.

...CA CNTRL VALLEY...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND SUBSEQUENT AIR MASS MOISTENING INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...NAMELY
IN THE 750 TO 550 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT CHARGE
SEPARATION AND ANY RESULTANT LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 01/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.