[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221625
SWODY1
SPC AC 221623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ
10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN PA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SECONDARY SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING ALONG
COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE CAROLINAS WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME DOMINANT LOW AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY.

SHARP COASTAL FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE EXCEPT OUTER
BANKS  NC THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS IS
QUITE STRONG.  AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED MOISTURE/WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING AREA OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD BY
THIS EVENING AT LEAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
RAPIDLY.

...SRN AZ...
AS UPPER LOW HAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE W ...OVER CENTRAL
BAJA...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD WWD INTO SERN AZ. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY S OF AZ
BORDER WITH A FEW STRIKES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
SONORA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

...GULF COAST...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AREA AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD TO OFFSHORE GULF COAST BY
EARLY TONIGHT. PREDOMINANT WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH LITTLE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

..HALES.. 01/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.