[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221302
SWODY1
SPC AC 221300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY
25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 25 ESE FLO
30 W OAJ 15 ESE RWI 65 SW RIC 30 SW DCA 15 NNW ILG 20 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LEX 35 SE DAY
25 SSE MFD 25 SE YNG 10 NNE LBE 10 NNW EKN 30 SSW CRW 25 WNW JKL 35
NNE LEX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE YUM 35 NW PHX
55 WNW SAD 25 E DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER NRN IA AND NW IND
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE BUT PROGRESSIVE
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT.  THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE E OFF THE NJ CST EARLY SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CENTER
STRENGTHENS S OF CAPE COD.

...UPR OH VLY...
EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MIDWESTERN
DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /TOTAL TOTALS INDICES AROUND 48/...MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER OH/NRN KY.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST EWD
INTO WRN PA/WRN WV THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND
THAT TIME AS AREA OF STRONGEST ASCENT LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM 850 MB
THERMAL AXIS.  THE CONVECTION WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN
AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.

...MID ATL CST...
HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 210M WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL
PLN FROM HAT TO NYC LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW INTENSIFIES JUST
W OF REGION.  AT THE SAME TIME...EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT WSWLY MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REACH NRN NC/SRN VA AND ENCOURAGE SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR ECG.  OVERALL SETUP WILL FAVOR VERY STRONG ASCENT
IN WARM ADVECTION AREA OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO SE PA/NJ. 
SHALLOW COLD AIR WEDGE WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  BUT
STRONG UPLIFT IN PRESENCE OF SATURATED...NEARLY NEUTRAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS EXPERIENCING
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE SURFACE.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
FARTHER S...PASSAGE OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW MODIFIED
MARITIME AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z.  FARTHER W...EXPECT
SHALLOW DOME OF COOL AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS.  THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SC/NC CST NEWD INTO EXTREME SE VA.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ACROSS
REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  BUT DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED TIME FOR BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE ADVECTION
/GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/ SUGGEST THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT ANY ONSHORE SEVERE THREAT.  MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MAY...
HOWEVER...DEVELOP JUST OFF THE NC/VA CAPES LATER TONIGHT.

...SRN AZ...
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ON NRN FRINGE OF
NW MEXICAN UPPER LOW...WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO COEXIST.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
SE TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE.  DESPITE A RETURN OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY NOT 
STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT.  IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW
ALONG COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.  ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR NEAR OR ...MORE LIKELY...JUST
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING.

..CORFIDI.. 01/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.