[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ
10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL AREAS OF MID ATLANTIC STATES...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 110 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES.  RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
PER ANALYZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 9 MB/3 HR ACROSS THIS
AREA...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS. N-S EXTENSIONS OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD AIR DAMMING
JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS QUITE STRONG AS INDICATED BY
GSO/IAD 18Z SOUNDINGS. 

THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING
NEWD OFF THE NC COAST SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR
EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AS STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE.  SOME
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ACROSS ERN NC TO SRN NJ.

..PETERS.. 01/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.