[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220536
SWODY1
SPC AC 220534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY
25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS 10 SSW FAY
40 N RWI 35 E RIC 15 E SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS/SERN VA...

VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150-200M...WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NRN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AHEAD
OF INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION BY 00Z/23RD.  RETREATING WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION.  LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP
CONVECTION FROM COASTAL SC...NNEWD INTO SERN VA OR PERHAPS SRN MD. 
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT AND GREATER COVERAGE
TO AREAS OFFSHORE.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS
THE GULF STATES TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE.  DESPITE A
RETURN OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO STEEPEN/COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT.  IN ADDITION...SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.  RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
COAST...OR MORE LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.