[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141627
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
OAJ 45 SW ECG 25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 45 ENE RWI
20 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 SSE SRQ 10 E DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC WILL
DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD.  IMPULSE WHICH
RACED NE ACROSS THE OH VLY LATE YESTERDAY HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN

STRONG SW FLOW ON ERN FLANK OF POLAR LOW AND HAS HELPED ACCELERATE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E TO THE NC CAPES.  FARTHER S...SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WAS OVER NRN MEXICO AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS
CONTINUED E INTO THE NERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SHOULD...HOWEVER...WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES E/NE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

...S FL...
CORRIDOR OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR NOW OVER S FL WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND 
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD AND EWD.  IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST SURFACE
HEATING...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND.  OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BNDRY...ESPECIALLY INVOF APPARENT
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO FL FROM OFF THE NE COAST OF CUBA
/PER STLT/.

WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /6.0
- 6.5 DEG C PER KM/...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MEAN MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG.  COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MODERATE /25-30
KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CELL MERGERS...SETUP WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...FAR ERN NC...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD CLEAR THE NC CAPES
BY 18Z.  UNTIL THEN...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER FAR ERN NC GIVEN
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONG /50+ KT/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW.

..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.