[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141258
SWODY1
SPC AC 141257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
ILM 35 NE RWI 35 NW ORF 35 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 15 NW JAX 25
S SAV 30 W CRE 55 NNE RWI 25 NNE JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BECOMING DOMINANT
INFLUENCE OVER CONUS NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SRN BRANCH TROUGH HAS
RAPIDLY ACCELERATED NEWD ACROSS ERN U.S. AND IS DE AMPLIFYING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX.

PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD NEAR NJ
COAST AND ERN CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL FL...IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE
COLD FRONT USHERING IN THE MUCH COOLER...DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS.

AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE...VERY STRONG SLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
SEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AIR THAT HAS COVERED E COAST WILL SOON BE
REPLACED BY THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO THE W.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE AT 13Z FROM SRN DE/ERN VA AND ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE EWD TO OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS MORNING.  STILL A THREAT
OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE UNTIL
IT MOVES OFFSHORE.  SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT  AND VERY LOW LCL'S
SUPPORT THIS THREAT.

...FL PENINSULA...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY LINE NOW OVER CENTRAL FL AS LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS PULL
NEWD AWAY FROM AREA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED E AND S OF
PREFRONTAL LINE. THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COUPLED WITH HEATING...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  WITH
THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND POOR LAPSE RATES HAVE
REDUCED SEVERE RISK FL PENINSULA FOR TODAY FROM EARLIER OUTLOOK.

..HALES.. 01/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.