[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140536
SWODY1
SPC AC 140534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
CTY 35 WNW CHS 10 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AQQ 25 W VLD
15 ESE AGS 35 NE CLT 15 WNW NHK 15 SE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
INCLUDING MUCH OF FL TODAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY
EXTENSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A BROAD BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS PERIOD AS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE CAROLINAS...WILL TRACK EAST TO THE COASTAL PLAIN/OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL EXTEND SWWD TO
FL...AND THEN INTO THE ERN GULF. A PRONOUNCED LOWER LATITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF...WILL
INDUCE WIDESPREAD ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROCEED ESEWD
ACROSS FL THROUGH TODAY.

...ERN CAROLINAS/GA EARLY...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SSWLY/MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE ERN FLANK OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN OVERALL SLOW EWD PROGRESSION TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE/SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SLOW MOVEMENT HAS ALLOWED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE STRONGER
CONVERGENCE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE ENCOUNTERS THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK
FOR OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE ARE PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOCALLY
MODEST HODOGRAPH CURVATURE DOES EXIST IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...FROM ERN NC SWWD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

...FL...
TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER
FL TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL
LINE...AND/OR FRONTAL WAVE...MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSION...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN FL...MAY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 01/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.