[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLH MLU VCT NIR HDO
ACT LIT 55 ENE PBF GLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD FETCH OF SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX
NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...PARALLEL TO DECELERATING SFC FRONT OVER
EXTREME NWRN GULF.  EXPECT SFC FRONT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX
COAST THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH IT MAY RETREAT NWD ENOUGH TO APCH
GLS-BPT CORRIDOR AROUND 07/12Z.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES AND ERN ORE -- IS FCST TO
PHASE WITH CURRENTLY SEPARATE AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW WELL
OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA.  THOUGH NOT DIRECTLY IMPINGING ON AREA OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER TX/AR/LA...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS
AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO ITS SE.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SERN AR...
TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AFTER 07/00Z AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...WITH INCREASINGLY SATURATED
PARCELS REACHING LFC.  THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF
40-50 KT LLJ OVERNIGHT...FROM DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT GULF NEWD
ACROSS NRN LA. MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-300 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING BY END OF PERIOD ALONG
AND LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS...WITH CAPE EXTENDING THROUGH FAVORABLE
LAYERS FOR STORM ELECTRIFICATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.