[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061228
SWODY1
SPC AC 061227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM 45 W CBM 20 NNW
JAN POE VCT NIR HDO ACT LIT MEM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  WRN PART OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NWRN GULF BEFORE
LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL SURFACE
LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER SRN/ERN TX/NRN
LA...TRANSPORTING AN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER FROM ERN TX ACROSS NRN
LA/SRN AR INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY UP TO 250 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 850 MB.  ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 297K THETA SURFACE COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS THROUGH OH VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN TX DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN LA/SRN AR AND POSSIBLY NRN MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..WEISS.. 01/06/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.