[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050458
SWODY1
SPC AC 050456

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 45 WNW TPL
30 NW JCT 25 WNW SJT 55 E LBB 35 ESE LBL 50 SSW RSL 30 N MHK 20 WNW
DSM 20 NNW DBQ 50 SW MBL 30 S HTL 15 ESE FNT 25 WNW CLE 40 WSW LUK
35 SW OWB 35 SW MKL 30 W GLH 25 SSE SHV 25 S GGG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT H5 JET WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED AND
WED NIGHT.  AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN OK EARLY WED TO LOWER OH VLY WED EVENING TO
SWRN OH EARLY THU.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z/THU.

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX/OK NEWD
INTO THE OZARKS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LLJ.  THIS LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVING INTO THE OH VLY BY WED NIGHT.  STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY WWD...AND THUS TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD EWD INTO THE OH VLY WITH TIME.

GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM
SECTOR...PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM SERN TX NEWD TO THE MID MS VLY APPEAR LOW. 
MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED ATOP THE COLD AIR...NEAR/
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.

...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE CONCENTRATED TSTM THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF
DEEPENING H7 LOW FROM SCNTRL KS EARLY WED...ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO WED
AFTERNOON AND INTO NRN IL/SERN WI/SRN MI WED NIGHT WHERE STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL EXIST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE 100-150 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR 650 MB
AND CLOUD TOPS AOB MINUS 20C.  GIVEN THE STRONG LARGE SCALE H5
HEIGHT FALLS OF 180 METERS/12 HRS...SPORADIC LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN.

..RACY.. 01/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.