[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041955
SWODY1
SPC AC 041954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM
20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30
SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB
30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE
ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN TX/SWRN OK...

WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NWRN TX BUT SHOULD ADVANCE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM...A NWD SURGE
INTO SERN OK AND MUCH OF AR WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER
ACROSS THIS REGION AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO KS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NWRN OK/SRN
KS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO MO AND SRN IL AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN MARGINAL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD POSE LITTLE THREAT OF HAIL.

FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.  IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK
OF DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM
FOCUS OF LLJ INTO THE MS VALLEY.  LATER TONIGHT ASCENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT.  THIS MAY
ENHANCE ORGANIZED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...POSSIBLY CAPABLE
OF GENERATING HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..DARROW.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.