[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM
20 NW LAS CDC 40 SSW GUC 15 NNW TAD 20 SSE EHA 40 W HUT 50 NNE SZL
35 SSE SPI 25 N EVV 35 SSW OWB 40 ENE MKL 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 30
SSE DAL 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE WEST TX
PLAINS...AND WILL ENHANCE FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  AS STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER WRN
AND NWRN TX WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO OK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BECOME TOO VIGOROUS GIVEN SATURATED MID LEVELS
AND RESULTANT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES.

...SWRN STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH POCKET OF VERY COLD MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES
REMAIN STEEP...FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELDS REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..EVANS.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.