[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041245
SWODY1
SPC AC 041244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
CDS PVW 10 SSW AMA 45 WNW OKC 40 ESE OKC ADM 15 ESE SPS 60 S CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG
55 NNE LAS CDC 4HV MTJ 35 SW PUB 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL MIE 20 NE LUK
LEX 10 ESE BNA 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 50 W TYR 10 SSE BWD 45 NNE P07
50 WNW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND SWRN
OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IS MOVING EWD ACCORDING TO
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO
SRN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS
TO CONTINUE EWD TODAY ACROSS CA AND SRN NV...OPENING TONIGHT INTO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN BEFORE
REACHING THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN MO/NWRN AR SWWD INTO NRN TX/SERN
NM MAY BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SWRN UPPER SYSTEM...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN EXISTING COLD AIR MASS
SUGGEST MODELS ARE MOVING FRONT TOO FAR NWD.

...NW TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK...

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND SREF CONTROL RUN OF THE ETAKF
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE LAYER AS
SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER TX AND OK TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
THE STRONG SLY FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND MODEST STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NW TX INTO
SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL OK.

ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING AN
EAST-WEST BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OK INTO NRN AR/SRN MO. 
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD
TODAY...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLATEAU ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WRN TX ACROSS OK THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING /ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT/ AS STRENGTHENING SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
STARTING OVER PARTS OF NW TX...SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK
TONIGHT.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ELEVATED CAPE INDICATES PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.

..WEISS.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.