[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040538
SWODY1
SPC AC 040536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG
55 NNE LAS 10 N MLF 35 W PUC 45 NNW GJT 55 E GUC 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL
30 ESE MIE 25 ESE DAY 55 E LUK 45 ENE LEX 50 SW BNA 25 ENE ELD 65 SW
TYR 55 S BWD 45 NNE P07 50 WNW MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS AR AND NORTH TX EXTENDING WWD
INTO WEST TX. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES OUT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.

THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND ACCELERATE EWD AS A STRONG
100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WEST
TEXAS HELPING TO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE TX PANHANDLE IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
03Z IN THE TX PANHANDLE SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE
EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...NORTH TX AND
OK BY THE EVENING HOURS.

IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A BROAD 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS CAUSING THE FRONT
TO BEGIN LIFTING NWD. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING THE COLD DENSE
AIR TOO FAR BACK TO THE NORTH WHICH MEANS THE INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE WOULD BE
MINIMAL. HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
STILL UNCERTAIN...A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY VERIFIES. IN THAT CASE...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD
PROBABLY BECOME NECESSARY. IN ANY CASE...AN AREA OF CONVECTION
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND TRACK EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS OK AND FAR NORTH TX.

...SWRN STATES...
THE UPPER-LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SFC HEATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.