[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040051
SWODY1
SPC AC 040049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 10 ENE EDW 45 SW
LAS 40 SW GCN 35 SE INW 25 NE SAD 50 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 15 E ALM 65 W CVS
45 E DHT 30 SE P28 40 NW SGF 20 WNW CGI 20 SSW PAH 15 N MKL 25 N GLH
20 ENE SHV 20 SE ACT 45 NW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
SRN MO THROUGH AR INTO NORTH TX. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDS NWWD INTO
WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE TX INTO ERN AR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...LIKELY WEAKENING NEAR THE MS RIVER OR IN WRN TN. LATER
TONIGHT...THE ETA/GFS MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS TX AND OK. THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
BOUNDARY FROM WEST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN OK. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SERN NM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP THE CONVECTION TO
RAPIDLY EXPAND AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE
FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS NEAR THE SFC MAY ENOUGH
FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN NW TX AND SWRN OK.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

...CA/AZ...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SW OF
SAN FRANCISCO. 23Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE
SRN CA COAST AND CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SMALL
HAIL CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH VALUES OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM BY MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS FOR SAN DIEGO SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY...0-1 KM SHEAR BELOW
10 KT AND BACKING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND DAMAGE
AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE STORMS MOVE INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.