[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020033
SWODY1
SPC AC 020032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW EMP 20 ESE SLN
30 NE CNK 25 WSW OTG 35 NNW RWF 30 NW STC 35 ESE DLH 15 ENE IWD 10
SSW MQT 45 NNW TVC 40 SW HTL 40 NNE FWA 25 WNW MIE 25 SW MTO 40 ESE
SZL 20 WSW EMP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SERN NEB WITH A
WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MO AND SCNTRL IA. CONVECTION IS
ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS IA AND MN...DEVELOPING
PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER IA AND MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ALSO HELPED INITIATE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
OVER NRN MO WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND WRN
IL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
NRN IL WHERE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. 

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING SWWD INTO ERN NEB AND
POSSIBLY NE KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS. THE 00Z OMAHA AND TOPEKA SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS STORMS
INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND FALLING
SFC TEMPS SHOULD FARTHER REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT.
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN
MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.