[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011943
SWODY1
SPC AC 011941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX
30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW BJI 10 ESE CMX
15 ENE PLN 25 ENE HTL 15 NW LAN 40 ENE LAF 45 SSE MTO 45 SW STL 10
WNW SGF 40 SSE CNU 30 NNW PNC 20 NNE HUT 30 W LNK 25 W FSD 30 N ATY
55 SSW BJI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SEEMS TO HAVE
BROKEN INTO TWO FEATURES.  NRN-MOST IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SD
AND NRN NEB WITH A BRANCH OF THE SLY LLJ IMPINGING UPON THE E-W
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN NEB.  RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS INCREASING IN THE MID-MO VLY NWD INTO ERN SD.  RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT PARCELS NEAR H7 HAD 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND GIVEN
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PARCELS ARE BEING LOFTED TO ALTITUDES
WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN MINUS 20C.  THE RESULT HAS BEEN
FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF KFSD WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW 0C.  AS THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN AND
TOWARD MI AREA LATER TONIGHT.  

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE OVER ERN
CO AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A SECOND BRANCH OF THE LLJ WAS BLOWING INTO THE SLOWLY
RETREATING POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN IL...GIVING RISE TO
ELEVATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL BE
LOW...CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR S OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES.  HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER FROM H8-H7 AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY MITIGATE SURFACE BASED TSTMS AND
RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.  OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA AND INTO
WCNTRL IL.

...PAC NW COAST...
LOW-MIDLEVEL ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE/ISOLD LIGHTNING THREAT ALONG THE ORE/WA/NRN CA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS SWRN ORE/NRN CA COASTS TOWARD MORNING AS UPSTREAM VORT MAX
DIGS SEWD TOWARD THESE AREAS.

..RACY.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.