[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020548
SWODY1
SPC AC 020546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW JHW 20 N YNG
50 SE DAY 30 SSE OWB 45 SSW PBF 40 S SHV 40 NW BPT 30 ENE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4BK 25 E CEC 30
NE ACV 35 SSE EKA 15 S UKI 15 E SFO 35 SE MRY 20 SSE PRB 25 ESE SMX
25 NNE OXR 15 SSW RAL 20 WSW CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 20 SSE COT
50 NNE DRT 55 S BGS 50 NNE BGS 30 NNE CDS 40 ESE GAG 25 SE ICT 35
ENE SZL 20 E SPI 30 NNW FWA 25 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 N TUS 45
S SOW 70 SSW GNT 15 NNW ONM 40 SSW 4CR 15 E ALM 35 SSE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH VALLEY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED FROM IND/IL EXTENDING SWWD INTO MO AND NW OK BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM WCNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD INTO WCNTRL OK.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ERN OK AND ERN TX. 

CONCERNING INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE TX HILL
COUNTRY EXTENDING NWD INTO SW OK. AT UPPER-LEVELS...STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET PROVIDING STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS REGION. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z MONDAY
IN NW TX AND SW 0K SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. IF THIS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY VERIFIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BEST SFC INSTABILITY. THE HAIL THREAT
SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS TRACK
NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK ENCOUNTERING A COLD FRONT. ANY HAIL THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

...CA COAST...
AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD
TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE VERY COLD...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWS CENTER DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
ASCENT. A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO JUST THE COASTAL AREAS.

...SE AZ/SW NM...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS SFC TEMPS WARM. A FEW STORMS COULD
INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ AND SW NM. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPS
COOL OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.