[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011627
SWODY1
SPC AC 011626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX
30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE
30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO
15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
12Z ETA/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RUNS REGARDING STRONG
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...AND THUS FEW IF ANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED FROM EARLIER
CONVECTIVE FORECAST.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS EWD TO JUST
SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS CENTRAL MO...EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK LOW
CENTER OVER NERN CO/NWRN KS.  THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE LOW CENTER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS SWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
EWD...PRESSURE FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB BY THE EARLY
EVENING.

WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN KS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AS SSWLY
LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  DESPITE
PRESENCE OF SUCH SHEAR OVERSPREADING A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETAKF AND RUC TO REMAIN
TOO WEAK FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  WILL
MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL 5% THREAT AREAS FOR WIND AND HAIL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD STORMS FORM NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z.  OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO PRODUCE
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING INTO
PORTIONS OF IA/NRN MO.

..EVANS.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.