[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011254
SWODY1
SPC AC 011252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK
30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE
BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE
30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO
15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX
30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN KS/NWRN MO/S CENTRAL IA...
ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WEST...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...A FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL SHOULD
LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN ERN CO
AND SHIFTS INTO NWRN MO THIS EVENING. A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET...
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND AID IN TRANSPORTING A MORE MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG WIND/HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WV/IR IMAGERY LIFTING NNEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN TX/WRN LA. MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE EL TEMPERATURES WERE FROM 0C TO -10C AND THIS HAS
INHIBITED THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 3-6 DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE TOPS TO GROW SUFFICIENTLY
TALL TO GENERATE LIGHTNING.

...NW PACIFIC COAST...
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST
TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE ONTO THE ORE COAST THIS
EVENING. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -30C TO -32C WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING.
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND OFFSHORE WHERE WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
MORE INSTABILITY THAN ACROSS THE COLDER INLAND AREAS.

..IMY.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.