[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010608
SWODY1
SPC AC 010605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SLN 20 SW LNK 10
SSW SPW 30 N RST 20 NNW GRB MBL 25 NE GRR 15 NE AZO 20 N LAF 25 NE
SLO 20 SE TBN 15 ENE JLN 35 SSW CNU 50 E ICT 25 E SLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 ESE AST EUG 40
E CEC 45 S EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK
30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE
BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MS VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS A
RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX AND LA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
INLAND THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS
LA AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
NEAR THE TX COASTAL BEND...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS LA AND FAR EAST TX. THE
STORM CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...EVENTUALLY
REACHING AR AND WRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS...ERN NEB AND MO...A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
ALLOW SFC DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM FAR SE NEB
EWD ACROSS NRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR MKC SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE EXPANDING ENEWD EVENTUALLY REACHING NE MO AND NRN
IL LATE TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...
A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL DIG SEWD TODAY APPROACHING THE ORE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL RESULT IN A THUNDER
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ORE COAST EXTENDING OFFSHORE
UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.

..BROYLES.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.