[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281303
SWODY1
SPC AC 281301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE
PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT
15 W YKM 15 NE RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE MID
MS VLY DEEPENS EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  FAST SRN STREAM JET
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE NRN GULF AND FL...WHILE SYSTEM
NOW ENTERING ORE WEAKENS IN LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST WILL EDGE
SLOWLY S ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL TODAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FL
STRAITS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

...EXTREME S FL...
A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN STREAM JET...ATTM OVER THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE S FL REGION AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD ENE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE IMPULSE
CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY.

50-60 KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING AND
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPE TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG.  AS A RESULT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND. BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.

...WA/ORE...
A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM CROSSING WRN WA/ORE.

...NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA...
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MS...AL AND GA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AS STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID MS VLY TROUGH GLANCES REGION. 
EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A
THUNDER AREA ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.