[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280533
SWODY1
SPC AC 280531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE
PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 35 W EAT 55 W PDT
25 SSE RDM 15 NW LMT CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 10 S SAT
40 WNW AUS 20 NE TPL 45 ENE CLL 25 ENE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG...SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO SERN STATES. FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE
OF PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS /CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER
MO VALLEY AND TX WILL/ WITH RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY.
IN THE W...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH PROGRESS EWD THROUGH MEAN
RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INTENSE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD JUST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE OH VALLEY
WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY.

...TX...
TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO HILL COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX
ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...FL...
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WHILE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...WA/ORE...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
43N/130W WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LOW AND
ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. IT APPEARS THE BEST COUPLING OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WA/ORE TODAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TSTMS.

..MEAD.. 02/28/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.