[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280056
SWODY1
SPC AC 280055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM
35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 15 NNW NIR
10 N FST 20 WNW ELP SVC 70 WNW TCS 40 WSW ABQ 20 W LVS 30 S CAO 25 S
GAG FSI 30 NE HOU 40 ENE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY AYS 30 NNW
CAE 30 SE DAN 20 ENE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 998 MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE FL COAST
E OF JAX WITH A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
FARTHER N ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTIONS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST TO THE E/NE OF SURFACE LOW
TRACK. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND
FIELDS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE ANTICIPATED
WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
TRAILING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA /JUST S OF CTY/ AND
INTO THE ERN GULF TO S OF BUOY 42036. 00Z TBW...MFL AND EYW
SOUNDINGS ALL STILL INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
SHIFTING TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW SOME
WEAK SIGNAL ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR TBW LATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD STORMS
REDEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...WRN INTO CNTRL TX...
TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FROM VICINITY OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PNHDL/S
PLAINS SEWD TO E OF BWD. RATHER STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/PER 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX
APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL S OF LBB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OWING
TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ AND
RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

..MEAD.. 02/28/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.