[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 272006
SWODY1
SPC AC 272004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
TLH 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSW CRE 25 N OAJ 10 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM
35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 40 E LUL
SEM 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 20 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT
30 WNW FST 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 20 NNE INW 35 NNW GUP 50 NNE
SAF 30 NE ALS 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20
S TPL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE GA/SC/NC
COAST......

...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.  SURFACE
ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF TO NRN FL AND OFF THE GA/NRN FL COAST. 
THIS IS THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...A COOLER
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ACROSS GA/SC IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM MOVING INLAND OVER SC.  THIS
FURTHER SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD TO ALONG OR JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

AREA VADS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER
SRN FL...MAINLY SOUTH OF WW 041...ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SW...
INDICATIVE THAT STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM SRN FL.  THUS...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN FL TO
THE GA COAST BY 00-03Z.

A SECOND EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ESEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  VEERED LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...NWRN TX...
LIGHTNING DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN
NM IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX AT THIS
TIME.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/NWRN TX...WHERE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.