[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271627
SWODY1
SPC AC 271626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
CTY 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM
35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 20 NNW BTR
20 E LUL 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 10 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT
25 S INK 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 10 SW INW 40 S GUP 45 NNW LVS
35 S PUB 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20 S
TPL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO THE GA/SC/NC
COAST...

...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST....
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL FL AHEAD
OF MID/UPPER WAVE NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
NRN FL LATER TODAY AND LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GA/SC COAST OVERNIGHT. 
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL-DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL FL FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...AS BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO ITS NORTH. 
HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS INTO
NRN FL WILL ALLOW THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN FL
BY LATE IN THE DAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING NOW OCCURRING OVER
SRN FL WILL ENHANCE SBCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY.  THOUGH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NNEWD DURING
THE PERIOD...BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED SHEAR AND INCREASING SBCAPES
SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF FL
TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY PRIMARY
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL
LATER TONIGHT. SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAINTAIN A MORE SLY COMPONENT AND NEAR LOW
CENTER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL VEERING OF THE
SFC-H85 WINDS TODAY ACROSS FL MAY SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR NATURE TO
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.

...NWRN TX...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK LATER TODAY.  DESPITE THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS
INSTABILITY AND LIFT BECOME ADEQUATE FOR MOIST CONVECTION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD.

..EVANS.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.