[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271236
SWODY1
SPC AC 271234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
AQQ MGR 10 SE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM
35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 50 SW SJT
25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 35
NNE TAD 35 SE DEN 45 NNW 4FC 20 NNW RWL 25 ENE CPR 30 W BFF 15 NNW
IML 30 ESE GLD 25 NNE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15
SE BHM 25 ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA
AND THE S ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY STRONG SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E/NE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS PERIOD AS WEAKER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CO/NRN NM SAGS SE INTO TX.  SURFACE WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH...ATTM CENTERED AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF BVE...SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS ENE ACROSS N FL LATER
TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS
THE WAVE REDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE NE FL CST.

...FL/SE GA...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF FMY TO
NEAR VRB...LIFTS NWD TO NEAR JAX.

PRESSURE FALL PATTERN OVER FL AND THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW S OF BVE WILL TRACK ENE TOWARD N FL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER S FL TO
SPREAD NWD TO NEAR CTY/GNV/JAX.  CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
SMALL MCS OFF THE WRN FL CST WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH
OF CNTRL FL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.  BUT EVEN
WITH ONLY MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BOOST AVERAGE
SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM TPA TO GNV.  GIVEN
CONVERGENT NATURE OF FLOW FIELD...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BOTH ALONG WARM FRONT
AND WITHIN WARM SECTOR.

SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 60-70 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF.  AS THE
SPEED MAX CONTINUES EWD...DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AOA 60
KTS OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA.  COUPLED WITH EXPECTED 0-1 KM SRH
OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS...MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD
FROM GULF SURFACE WAVE LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.  VEERED LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN.  THIS CURRENT OF COLD AIR IS
BEING FED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN WAKE OF
DEEP CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW.  THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST OVER REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AUGMENTED BY
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF RAIN FALLING INTO IT.  IN ADDITION...
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE GULF SURFACE WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER IT HAS REDEVELOPED OFF THE NE CST OF FL. THUS... EXPECT THAT
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC CST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE WARM
SECTOR MAY...HOWEVER...CLIP THE CAPE FEAR AREA OF NC EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE THE KINEMATIC SETUP WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS.  BUT WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.

...TX PNHDL TO W CNTRL TX...
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CO/NM VORT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATER TODAY.  WITH
GOOD SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
AT MID LEVELS /AOB MINUS 24C AT 500 MB/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.  SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL.  GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE SUPPLY AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...
INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL.

..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.