[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270525
SWODY1
SPC AC 270523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
AQQ 20 SW TLH 30 NW SAV 20 NW OAJ 10 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM
40 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 60 WSW JCT
25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 15 W
LAA 25 NE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15 SE BHM 25
ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRANCH OF SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TX AND
ADJACENT NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/NRN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS...UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL DIVE SSEWD...REACHING LOWER MO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE ERN FL PNHDL BY
LATE AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY 28/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. FARTHER
NW...COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
PUSH SWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN IL INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.

...FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST...
EXPECT TSTMS TO BE ONGOING AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FROM THE N-CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY N OF
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 M/S/ WILL EXIST WITHIN VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
DEVELOP OWING TO ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E.
MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP NEAR WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE NEWD ACROSS SERN GA
AND THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
STRONG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG
TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING FROM
PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..MEAD.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.