[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 30 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 W CLL 40
S SHV MCB 25 ESE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS GBN 40 N
SAN 30 NNE OXR SAC SVE 55 SW ENV 60 ENE ELY 45 S VEL 25 SW FCL 10
ENE COS 55 WSW RTN 10 NE 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST INTO SRN ROCKIES...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED FROM THE
SRN GREAT BASIN SEWD TO SERN AZ/SWRN NM.  COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF ASCENT LOCATED WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CA TO THE ROCKIES ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT SOME HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA WHERE
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

...FL...
ALTHOUGH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK...FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED CU IS STRUGGLING TO
SUSTAIN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT/ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING
GENERATION.  A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

...TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
VIS/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX TOWARD OK AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED CONVECTIVE NATURE TO
THE CLOUDS OVER SRN/ERN TX WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION...COMBINED WITH
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WAS BEING MAXIMIZED FOR SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
CONFINED TO THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN CHIHUAHUA.  INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO THE
TX COAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD WILL
ADVECT HIGHER THETAE AIR NWD ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THEN NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. 
THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AVAILABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX COAST TOWARD SRN LA.

..PETERS.. 02/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.