[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251622
SWODY1
SPC AC 251619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 30 SSW FAT 10 NW
SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 75 SW ELY 45 NNW GJT 30 ESE ASE 40 SW
ALS 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW
SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
PAIR OF SURFACE FRONTS EXTEND ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS FL THIS MORNING. 
SRN MOST BOUNDARY IS DELINEATING A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PBI SWWD INTO NRN
MONROE COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SBCAPES ARE APPROACHING 2000
J/KG ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. 
PRIMARY NEGATIVE CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
AS IT WASHES OUT TODAY.  PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE SWLY WHILE ONLY
WEAK/CALM WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND IT...SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS SMALL WARM SECTOR.

CONVERGENCE REMAINS MUCH STRONGER NEAR PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY.  SHEAR
AND MODEST SBCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT TODAY AS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES AND SUSTAIN
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION...
THOUGH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER SWRN TX AND NERN
MEXICO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT
INTO THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY THEREFORE
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

...CA INTO THE 4-CORNERS...
MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
TODAY AS BROAD POCKET OF -22C TO -24C H5 AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. 
THUS...REGION SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..EVANS.. 02/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.