[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251236
SWODY1
SPC AC 251234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW
FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE
U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS GNT 65 ESE SOW
30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW
SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
...MAINTAINING COOL CYCLONIC CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S. 
AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM REX-TYPE PATTERN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN
AS /1/ PART OF THE SW U.S. UPPER LOW SHEARS E/NE INTO THE CNTRL HI
PLNS AND /2/ ANTICYCLONIC MEMBER NOW OVER ID/WY RETROGRESSES WWD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS
WILL SETTLE S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA.  THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRESH SURGE OF POLAR AIR THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE NERN STATES.

...FL...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE NRN GULF DURING THE
PAST 18 HRS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.  A BAND OF SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND CROSS CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW EMBEDDED...WEAKLY
ROTATING CELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  BUT RELATIVELY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG PER KM/ LOW TO MID
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT VERY LIMITED.

FARTHER S...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
RELATED TO A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEPARATE
AREA OF STORMS OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE PENINSULA.  BECAUSE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CLEAR THE STATE... SOME
INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES LATER THIS
MORNING.  BUT LINEAR CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION ALREADY ESTABLISHED
AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED IN THIS REGION AS WELL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.

...TX...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY
EARLY SATURDAY AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW WELL W OF BAJA CA
ACCELERATES ENE INTO MEXICO.  INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER NRN MEXICO THAT MAY EXPAND NWD/EWD INTO PARTS
OF SRN AND SW TX.  GIVEN EXPECTED DEPTH OF POLAR AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER REGION...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH
WILL DEVELOP WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO YIELD SEVERE HAIL N OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

...SWRN U.S....
RESIDUAL POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT UPPER
LOW...ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION/
THUNDER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST.  WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE SIZE OF ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL STONES SMALL.

..CORFIDI.. 02/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.