[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250546
SWODY1
SPC AC 250544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW
FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE
U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL GJT FMN GNT 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70
WSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW
SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING
OF NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH CENTER. THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS
UNDERWAY IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING/FLATTENING CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.

AS HIGH WEAKENS...SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT TO MAJOR AXIS OF BROADENING
SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION IS PROGGED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

IN CYCLONIC BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...
IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS TO BE
PHASING WITH STRONG BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU.  MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN FORECAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY LATE TONIGHT.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
BUOY/SHIP DATA AND LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...
WHICH NOW APPEARS MOSTLY CORRELATED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.

AS EXIT REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET NOSES EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
...ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH DAYBREAK...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PERSIST.  THIS CLUSTER MAY
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS 12Z. 
EARLY INLAND DEVELOPMENT MAY PRECLUDE CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PENINSULA...PROVIDING PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE
THREAT.

LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF 20 TO 30
KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WEAK WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH CONVECTION...
BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS/SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  SCATTERED NEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT ANY
LINGERING DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY
LOCALIZED.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.  DAYTIME
HEATING/OROGRAPHY APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER.  MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON CAPE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SMALL HAIL IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

...TEXAS...
COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST IN THE LEE OF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...AND MUCH OF THE GULF STATES. 
HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES ACROSS
BAJA AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... FOCUSED
AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PLATEAU...ABOVE INVERSION LAYER INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 
MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  GIVEN DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
LAYER AND WEAKNESS OF ELEVATED CAPE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 02/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.